The other half year export face severe situation
According to customs statistics, and in July, of our country export $176.94 billion, up 1%; $25.15 billion trade surplus, narrow 16.8%. After the season, July export annulus comparing fell 4.2%, imports fell by 5.8% month-on-month.
From ubs securities of China’s chief economist WangTao analysis thinks, the global economic downturn indexes, including the recent U.S. ISM index and German IFO index last fall, the bilateral trade has negative growth,China’s export of downside risk to the third quarter rose.
Barclays capital economists HuangYiPing said, consider to continue to reduce new export orders of the PMI,Made in china export growth is expected to slow further.
DBS bank in the greaterChinaregion, a senior economist LiangZhaoJi expected, the contribution of net exports to GDP is more and more small, so the investment and consumption will take the responsibility for promoting the economic increase of the main responsibility.
Traffic bank financial research center is expected to report, in the future international economic growth in the short term to improved obviously, the market will still remain low. Together with the domestic export enterprise operating costs rise, difficult to export to fundamental change, overall export growth may only future maintain at 10% or so.
Foreign trade enterprise have pressure
The data shows, the foreign trade enterprise especially traditional manufacturing industry overall still confined, order to reduce, profits and cash flow nervous, these restrain exports.
Shanghai silk group President XuWeiMin revealed, the situation, the export growth in the first half of a single digits, to July, has declined. “In the first half, the second half of next year than this year as.” XuWeiMin judgment, “the main cause is a less demand, and the second is the enterprise’s overall costs are still rising.”
Many foreign trade enterprise has a similar feeling, overseas customer order quantity is little, together with the rising cost of foreign trade, stress is not really small.
One of the deputy general manager in XiaoFeng eyes, there are several problems to be solved: one is the ability to pay of the foreign buyers have been affected, and on the international trade credit payment proportion more and more high, more and more foreign buyers requirements to cash on delivery and greatly lower the price of Chinese products, leading companies take single difficulties; 2 it is to need the enterprise to reimburse them later production big proportion of funds, and the bank of small micro enterprise does not provide trade financing led to production ready money pressure big, many foreign trade enterprise can’t meet the list; Three is currency fluctuations increase, bank of micro enterprise basically does not provide small forward foreign exchange the value of services, many small businesses can’t take long list.
According to the weak trade data, bank of Australia in the greater China region economic research director LiuLiGang Suggestions, must be introduced as soon as possible support policy, between various departments also need to maintain a high level of policy coordination, or 10% of the annual trade growth goals may be difficult to complete
“Made in China”need innovation
Cost increase foreign demand, reduce, let a large number of foreign trade enterprise in the internal conflicts in trouble and survival. At the same time, some foreign brand inChinahave its manufacturing factory moved, no doubt, it is the domestic OEM enterprise must face a real problem.
Adidas recently announced that shut down its affiliated factory is the only one in China. Sales in Chinaunder the background of sharply, but going to shut down the only one factory in China directly under the action let people anywhere. Industry insiders thinks generally, domestic production cost gradually enhanced, adidas is the main reason of the factory closed in China.
“Shanghaihas adidas produces the factory, the hat for the enterprise, apparently formed lots of impact.” Shanghai export commodities association President fengzhengzhousaid. “in fact, such as adidas closed factories in Chinato find another way out, but there is still a lot more famous adidas caused market focus.”
This series of move sparked a controversy about Chinese manufacturing advantage. Recently, researchers analyzed that consultation, buyers away fromChinaa lot of probability is not great. First, our country has large-scale production advantages; Second, any product production need all the industrial chain of division of labor and cooperation, Third, China has a large number of skills adept skilled workers, can be competent to mass production work.
However, for the enterprise and government decision-making is concerned, but do not so seriously, industrial upgrade than ever before pressing.
“The United Statescalled for manufacturing in China also backflow, should think about how to the industry.” Von zhengzhou said, “from the policy level, the need for further intensify efforts to tax cuts, optimizing enterprise survival environment, financial service facilities; from the industry perspective, the traditional manufacturing industry and advanced manufacturing to walk on two legs, and traditional industries to focus on upgrading, high-tech industries need more research and development, personnel support. Made in China, but the transformation of this does not mean it is imperative to do the hat to do high-tech, but changing management way, in design, brand, channels and so on various improve service levels.”
This news is choosed by Yiwu International Trade Co.,Ltd.
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