How We Respond The Winter Of China Import?
First, in the current domestic demand has not reached us satisfied, and even some conditions under the situation of lacking, and not another 4 trillion investment, so for our another engine, is import and export, must strengthen.
In 2012 the export slowdown obvious, I estimate that in 2012 we the whole trade growth is a digits, don’t like before double-digit growth, of which the most important is, we exported would gradually decline. To do well the 2012 trade with a deficit preparation, but at the same time is also our foreign trade structure adjustment of the best period. We developed country surplus with too much, not only to import it cash, equipment, and can also import its high-end consumer goods. I don’t quite agree with luxury this concept, luxury in Chinain accordance with The Times, 30 years ago, the sewing machine, the bicycle is watch luxury, and now these are not. We can import high-grade inEuropeof cosmetics, bags, jewelry, including watches, to intensify efforts to reduce tariffs, so as to boost domestic demand.
Second, 2012 years we should prepare for trading war.
now in all countries to protect themselves, are in the currency exchange rate increased to reduce export, including the United States President Obama three years of double export plans. 2011 is the 10 year anniversary of China’s entry into the wto, we have is the world’s largest anti-dumping, anti-subsidy objects, 2012 more, and in addition to developed countries, our friends, emerging countries also will for us.
Third, in 2012 China small enterprise will encounter more difficult.
2011 although difficult larger, but can also be quite a pretty, in 2012 the eu market atrophy, and small and medium-sized enterprise could transition when, need government support a, the government needs in the winter to give it a warm “quilt” or “greenhouse”, 2012 years to small business plan.
We need to prepare for the whole domestic RMB float, especially large amplitude fluctuations change, there may be a RMB rises high some
In response, there are four must note.
First, pay attention to the tendency of theUnited States.
TheUnited Statesis pushing the TPP ([pan Pacific] strategic economic partnership agreement), to no longer interested in thedohanegotiations, it think most benefit from globalization isChina. There is a formerU.S.officials say with me, there are several things is the dominant, but the benefits ofChina: one is the Internet, 2 it is green and environmental protection, three is globalization. As long as it is WTO countries, you and it about prices, I also enjoy, but the TPP, it just bilateral. The core of the TPP isChinaruled out, but we also need not be afraid.
Second, must grasp transformation.
We import and export no longer spell consumption and environment pollution and labor costs, to service trade, if the processing trade is solve the problems of rural migrant workers, the service trade is to settle the problem of university students’ employment.
Third, we must use go out the favorable opportunity, to BaoTuan, it can’t, the government should DaTai, and at the same time the tourism resources well, tourism is also a service trade.
The last is RMB. I think should now increase the RMB internationalization, the RMB exchange rate mechanism in and international issues to take “trilateral” policy: see while pushing while changes; The important thing is that the speed up efforts to make RMB internationalization as soon as possible, which can include and peripheral countries sign RMB use limit, with HuMaoOu, service contracting through the RMB.
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